Mayhem Brexit is the term I use to refer to the situation of legal uncertainty and chaos created jointly by the United Kingdom and the European Union as a result of a succession of bad choices.
The result is that there is enormous legal uncertainty with effect from 23.00 GMT on 31st January 2020 as to the true situation in Public International Law and European Union Law with respect to the legal relationship between the UK and the EU.
In order for the UK and the EU to negotiate a credible agreement during 2020 the legal starting point must be known.
Mayhem Brexit will shortly start.
In Mayhem Brexit there are arguably at least four interpretations of the legal relationship between the UK and the EU as from 23.00 GMT on 31st January 2020:
- The official suggestion is that the UK has lawfully left the EU and that a lawful Withdrawal Agreement is in place including a Transition Period that supposedly creates legal stability until 23.00 GMT on 31st December 2020.
- A second interpretation is that the UK has lawfully left the EU but that the supposed Withdrawal Agreement is unlawful and/or void.
- A third interpretation is that the UK remains a Member State of the European Union. In other words the supposed Article 50 TEU process was void ab initio.
- A fourth interpretation is that the United Kingdom's supposed departure from the European Union constitutes an Internationally Wrongful Act (on the part of both the United Kingdom and the European Union). In that case both the UK and the EU have an obligation in Public International Law to restore the legal situation that existed before the Internationally Wrongful Act.
The opposite is true.
Uncertainty is entering a new progressive, pervasive and dangerous phase.
You ain't seen nothing yet.
I expect there to be a constitutional crisis in the UK whose proportions dwarf anything in living memory.
In addition, I expect there to be political crises in the UK and in the EU of awesome seriousness.
